The Edmonton Oilers: The Off-Balance, 2023/2024 Season Preview.
Can they put it all together?
I rewatched The Last Dance not too long ago.
The Emmy-winning miniseries, broadly, covers the Chicago Bulls dynasty of the 1990s but the primary focus is on Michael Jordan.
His continual drive to improve, his controversial but championship-delivering leadership, his legendary competitiveness.
He knew, at any given moment, that he was the best player on the court. So he would often take offence to even the smallest of slights, real, perceived or otherwise, to maintain his edge.
One of those slights? It was when Karl Malone won the NBA MVP Award in 1997.
I’m not saying he wasn’t deserving of it. All I’m saying is, that fuelled the fire in me. You think he’s the MVP? Okay, fine. No problem. I’m gonna show you that he’s not.
He’s lacking the championships, perhaps the only true critique against him (and something that he alone can’t control) but when I read that quote back?
I can’t help but think of Connor McDavid.
After Toronto Maple Leafs superstar Auston Matthews had a season for the ages in 2021/2022, the discourse at large reached a fever pitch.
Fans and media both, it seemed, were eager to crown a new king after so many years of having the same guy, McDavid, at the top.
Now, part of that hoopla is the end-result of the often embarrassing hype-machine that is the Toronto media but Matthews was truly exceptional that season, furthering cementing his case as the Greatest Leaf Ever to-be (and in the interest of transparency, if you know me personally you what team I cheer for: I was thrilled to see him be so highly-recognized, there is no question).
And equally so, he was deserving of such praise, absolutely but… I don’t know.
His top-of-the-food-chain status was touted so bluntly, so unequivocally, so loudly, by so many.
After just one season he’s the “best player in hockey?” C’mon now. Be serious.
I mean, listen, I’m as big a fan as anyone but such bold proclamations? They seemed to forget one important detail: that McDavid, like Jordan before him, has that killer instinct.
You think he’s the MVP? Okay, fine. No problem.
I’m gonna show you that he’s not.
And show us he did.
His 2022/2023 season was historic, impressive, considering “making history” has been McDavid’s M.O since the moment his NHL career began in 2015:
64 goals. Four more than Matthews scored the previous year (because of course).
153 points. He was the first player since Mario Lemieux in 1996 to surpass 150. It was the fifteen-highest scoring season in NHL history too (and the highest ever by a player not named Wayne Gretzky, Lemieux or Steve Yzerman).
He completed the Art Ross/Hart/Lindsay/Richard trophy sweep, joining Alex Ovechkin as the only players to accomplish such a feat. Just 26, he has already tied Phil Esposito and Jaromír Jágr all-time with five scoring titles.
But even with McDavid and teammate Leon Draisaitl doing what they do best, as two of the sport’s best players, the Oilers, while a legitimate contender, still came up short in the playoffs once again - losing in the second round to the eventual Cup winners, the Vegas Golden Knights.
And as the new season beckons, the Oilers find themselves in a similar position to where they’ve been most of the past few years.
Led by two brilliant talents and hoping that, with the right supporting cast, they’ll win their first championship since 1989/1990.
Can they get there?
It isn’t impossible.
Edmonton will be better positioned for legitimate contention in 2023/2024, simply by virtue of having stronger and more consistent goaltending (which is always a shot in the dark but stay with me).
Jack Campbell was supposed to be the team’s number-one last season but before the ink even dried on his five-year contract, he was riding the pine.
Rookie Stuart Skinner stepped up admirably (and finished second in rookie-of-the-year voting in the process) but he seemed outmatched come the playoffs. Campbell worked some games in relief against Vegas but it was too little, too late.
If it shakes out that Skinner is best suited to be the starter and Campbell, his very expensive backup?
Well, it seems reckless and a little like the Oilers realizing too late, that, “so… this could be a problem, huh?”
If they can make it work, though? Then it won’t matter.
The key, will be to make sure Skinner isn’t burnt out by the workload and Campbell, whatever his role, performs better than the 3.41 GAA and .888 save-percentage he posted last season, some of the worst numbers in hockey.
They should be helped, however, by the Oilers defense, which is (somewhat) stronger than what their reputation suggests.
In his limited time with the team following his trade from Nashville, Mattias Ekholm was widely praised for his work with Evan Bouchard on the team’s top pairing, while Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci (yes Leaf fans, that Cody Ceci) took on significant, if not totally effective minutes, as well.
Defense be dammed though: the Oilers will live and die by their ability to put the puck in the net.
Edmonton’s 2022/2023 power-play, converted at a 32.4 percent clip, the best single-season number in NHL history, surpassing the 1977/1978 Montreal Canadiens, per StatMuse.
So as a by-product of that offensive success, very good, if not great players, like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman, had career years.
And it seems reasonable to see that number trend downwards, especially given how… finicky power-play production can be when it comes to predicting future success (even if, in the end, all those goals count the same - just ask Chris Kreider, circa 2021/2022).
53 of Nugent-Hopkins’ 104 points came off the man advantage, as did 15 of Hyman’s 36 goals.
Again - good players? For sure.
But it wouldn’t be a shock to see those numbers average out and with that shift, the larger makeup of the Oilers supporting cast, as well: although it isn’t like their offense is going to crater completely.
Kailer Yamamoto, a long-time secondary contributor may be gone but Evander Kane, when healthy, is still a threat for 20 goals, as a baseline.
But Connor Brown, who was signed over the summer, played all of four games in 22/23 after tearing his ACL. Now, he is a two-time 20-goal man and something of a spark plug player, who can provide an offensive jolt throughout the lineup when utilized correctly.
To expect him to step right in though, coming off such an injury, that seems like a gamble.
Albeit, one the Oilers are clearly taking.
Because ultimately, their success, for better or worse, will run through McDavid and Draisaitl.
They’re as sound offensively as any two players in hockey, Draisaitl, a lock for 50 goals and 110-plus points, at minimum.
McDavid? Every time he steps on the ice, he seems to bend the idea of what is possible in the modern game to his will, as he steadily climbs the ladder of hockey immortality.
Sidney Crosby, the player he succeeded as the best in the sport, said recently he wouldn’t be surprised if McDavid pushed for 170 points this upcoming season, the bar, raised that high.
But it doesn’t seem out of reach.
The catch? The rest of the Oilers must keep up and stay at that level, if Edmonton wants any chance of competing come June.
Their goaltending must be, if not spectacular, then consistent. Their defensemen don’t need to be shutdown dynamos but they do need to provide enough stability that the team isn’t relying on their history-making forwards to win every single game.
Simple enough, right?