The Jays, The Derby King and The Greatest "Sho" on Earth.
And other stories from around baseball.
Hey readers!
With the All-Star Game behind us, the 2023 MLB season is already halfway over. Time flies, huh? And as games resume on Thursday and we start shifting our focus towards the second half, there are various stories worth checking in on from across the Majors.
I hope you enjoy and as always, thank you for reading Off-Balance! I am so grateful for your continued support.
Ryan.
Vladdy the Derby King!
So here’s something: per CBC, Vladimir Guerrero Jr hit five-and-a-half miles (or 29,390 feet) worth of home runs on his way to winning the Home Run Derby on Monday night.
Five-and-a-half miles! Can you imagine Andy Dufresne crawling his way to freedom for five-and-a-half miles? And you thought half a mile was bad?
I can and I don’t like it.
Anyway, alongside his dad, Vladimir Senior, who won the event in 2007, the Guerreros are now the first father-son duo to win the Derby with Junior being the first ever Blue Jay to boot.
That’s super cool! Not just for baseball in general but for Vladdy specifically, who, after coming up just short in the event as a rookie in 2019 (he lost in the final to Pete Alonso), was still finding his groove as a star-to-be.
After the pandemic-abbreviated 2020 season, the groove found him, as he went supernova in 2021.
Just 22 years old:
He tied Salvador Pérez for the Major League lead in homers with 48.
Led all of baseball in runs with 123
And came a far-away second to Shohei Ohtani for the American League MVP (we’ll get to him in a minute).
And as you probably know, now two years later, he hasn’t approached that level since.
His 2022 was still relatively strong (32 homers) and he was awarded for his work on defense by winning his first Gold Glove.
But so far this season, like his team, Vladdy has been battling inconsistency.
His hard-hit percentage and exit velocity, for example, are among the best in the Majors, per Baseball Savant and his defense is still strong but he’s experienced something of a power outrage, hitting only thirteen home runs so far in 2023.
Heck, he didn’t hit his first round-tripper at home until June 23rd, 77 games (!!) into the season.
Ideally, his showing at the Derby will be the spark both he and the Blue Jays need.
The Jays Gist.
And that’s weird, right? I mean, Toronto sent four players to Seattle this week: Guerrero, Bo Bichette, Whit Merrifield and Jordan Romano.
They’re holding onto the second wild card spot and are 50-41 at the break, their best record at this point in a season since 2016.
But expected to be past the growing pains that came to define them both in 2021 and 2022 - just outside the playoffs and then, throughly humiliated once they got there - instead, their season has been defined by stops and starts: like me, trying to drive stick. Pro athletes! They’re just like us!
So, there’s Bichette:
Currently leading the AL in hits with 122.
Batting .317, just six points behind Tampa’s Yandy Diaz for the League lead.
On track for his third straight 20+ home run season.
And playing an average-level shortstop, far cry from his defensive shortcomings in previous seasons.
And there’s Kevin Gausman:
Leading the AL in strikeouts with 153.
Strikeouts per nine innings (11.9)
And FIP (2.45).
Not to discredit anyone necessarily but together, they have been the Jays best players, co-MVPs, if you will.
Gausman will almost certainly be in the Cy Young mix (Shane McClanahan and Sonny Gray are probably his biggest competition there) and Bichette, if he can maintain his current pace, will lead the AL in hits for the third consecutive year, while potentially chasing down a batting title too.
But for all of their singular brilliance, you have the Jays at large, who can rack up 12 runs on 14 hits one day, only to be no-hit against the lowly Tigers the next (and yes, that’s baseball but it is also something of the Jays season in a nutshell).
For every bounce-back outing from José Berríos or Yusei Kikuchi, you have Alex Manoah spontaneously combusting as a viable MLB option and needing to be sent to the lowest rung of the minor leagues in order to rediscover his game.
For every gusty or hard-fought win, you have an absolutely horrific 7-20 record against the AL East, a .259 winning percentage, that is the third-worst divisional mark in baseball, per The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath.
And yet, they’re still in contention, still fighting and still right there, with ground to make up (they’re seven games back of the Rays) but with the talent and ability to ensure they’re not in Cancun sipping daiquiris come October.
But it is up to them to make it happen. Let’s see if they do.
Star power in Seattle.
Four quick notes on the All-Star Game:
He didn’t win the Derby but Julio Rodríguez, the Mariners hometown hero, made history regardless, hitting a record 41 homers in a single round. Pete Alonso, who came into the event hoping to match the great Ken Griffey Jr, for most all-time Derby wins (three) could only smile politely.
Viewership for the game dropped for the second year in a row. While the Midsummer Classic isn’t quite what it used to be (did you know, two games were held a season between 1959-1962? Now you do!) it is still one of the bigger events on the baseball calendar. You want my solution, MLB? Just let the players wear their standard jerseys during the game instead of trying to manipulate us into buying those gaudy things you have a focus group put together every year. Problem solved.
As for the game itself, the National League won 3-2, the first time they’ve done so since 2012. The American League had gone 21-4-1 at the event such 1996. Rockies catcher Elías Díaz was voted the game’s MVP. He hit the game-winning home run in the eighth inning.
While Kevin Gausman was voted an All-Star, he chose to skip out on the festivities, to spend time with his family and recharge for what is sure to be a tough second half. And you know what? Awesome! Good for him. The game carried on and nobody skipped a beat. It is a nice change of pace compared to what the NHL is still doing, suspending its own players for not participating, instead of moving the Coyotes to Quebec City where they belong (there’s a healthier middle ground, Gary).
Can’t stop Ronald!
The “30-30” season is one of baseball’s most celebrated individual feats.
Collecting both 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases in a single season is something only 43 players in AL/NL history have achieved, the ultimate combination of speed-and-power (Barry Bonds, in all his “I have more juice than a South Florida orange grove” glory, has the most ever, with five).
A 40-40 season is rarer still. Only four players (including Bonds, who had 42-40 in 1996) have ever gotten there.
You would literally have better luck winning the lottery, then betting on a player to put together a 40-40 season.
But Ronald Acuña Jr, the Atlanta Braves star outfielder, is not most players.
He came oh-so-close in 2019, falling three stolen bases short. It was a breakout campaign, where, after being voted NL Rookie of the Year the previous season, he went to the All-Star Game, won a Silver Slugger and came fifth in MVP voting.
2020 was a write off, his 2021 was cut brutally short by an ACL tear and his 2022, while effective - he stole 29 bases, hit 15 home runs and was voted an All-Star for the third time - wasn't, well, Ronald Acuña Jr, the superstar on the rise he seemed destined to be (still recovering from his injury no doubt played a role).
This year, however, fully healthy, he has quickly made up for lost time:
Already, he’s made history as the first player ever, to steal 40+ bases, hit 20 or more homers and record 50+ RBIs before the break.
For the season, he is on pace to hit 36 homers and steal 75 bases, per CBS.
Nobody has stolen 70 bases in a season since 2009. 50, since 2017.
And those numbers will fluctuate, of course, with the ebbs-and-flows, the ups-and-downs of a long season.
The Braves are the best team in baseball and have their eyes set on returning to the World Series, after their championship year in 2021. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Acuña sit out an odd game or two down the stretch as Atlanta looks to keep him fresh for the postseason.
But on the other hand, who can stop him?
Even now, in mid-July, you get the feeling he has all but locked down the NL MVP. The bigger question is, how much history will he make by the time he’s done? The first ever 40-70 season, maybe even 40-80, is within his reach.
Elly-Mania!
Elly De La Cruz has played only 30 games since being called up to the Cincinnati Reds on June 6th.
But looking at his list of accomplishments thus far, they’d be career highlights for many:
He hit his first career homer on June 7th. It travelled 458 feet.
On June 28th, his 15th game, he hit for the cycle, becoming the youngest player to do so since César Cedeño in 1971, per ESPN.
And on July 8th, he stole second, third and home, ALL IN THE SAME INNING.
Sorry for the all-caps but… c’mon! Look at this! Even his own teammates couldn’t believe it.
He doesn’t seem real, this 6’5, 200-pound, switch-hitting shortstop, who fires lasers across the infield, hits with such power he turns off the lights and has more speed than Paul Le Mat trying to win a drag race against Harrison Ford.
I mean, look at his numbers here.
They’re ridiculous!
His exit velo, his sprint speed, his arm strength.
Nobody hits the ball as hard, throws it harder or runs as fast.
He plays with the type of energy and exuberance people in baseball are always asking for more of, only to complain incessantly once it arrives, though it doesn’t seem to faze him in the slightest.
Since his recall, the Reds, who lost 100 games in 2022, have gone 22-8 and are tops in the NL Central. They won 12 straight games from June 10th to 23rd.
Teammate Joey Votto, himself, a former MVP, future Hall of Famer and one of the most unique men in all of pro sports, can only think of one comparison for his newest teammate: the great Micky Mantle.
“This is extreme, but has there been a better switch-hitting, speed-power guy? The only comp I can think of is Mickey Mantle.”
That is high praise and to say that any player could live up to it, so soon in their career, would be foolhardy.
Yet, De La Cruz just might. That’s the beauty of baseball, after all. Bearing witness to the unexpected and extraordinary.
However far he goes, we’ll all be watching closely: if we can even keep up.
The Greatest “Sho” on Earth.
When I wrote about Shohei Ohtani last month, I had actually held off on posting that piece for quite a while.
I’d kept planning to have it up but then he’d hit another home run, pitch another twelve strikeout game, make the kind of history that hadn’t been seen in 100+ years - as is his MO.
I got it out there, hoping he wouldn’t immediately make it outdated.
But of course he did.
There is really no easy way, try as we might, to wrap your head around what Ohtani can do on the diamond.
This season, he is the very best hitter in baseball while also being an elite pitcher (although blister issues may limit him there, for the time being).
As the second half begins:
He leads all of MLB in triples, home-runs, slugging and OPS. He’s stolen eleven bases too.
He has pitched 100 innings, won seven games, struck out 132, to a tune of 11.8 every nine innings, with a 3.32 ERA.
And he has the highest WAR in baseball at 6.5, a full win and a half more than Ronald Acuña Jr, per ESPN.
Some jabroni will probably leave him off their ballot, preventing him from winning his second MVP unanimously but it wouldn’t matter.
It isn’t hyperbole anymore: we are watching, in real-time, one of the greatest baseball players ever, perhaps the greatest, at the peak of his power. Period. Full stop.
Yet the Angels are doing what they do best: wasting away.
On June 16th, they were 39-32, 4.5 games out of first in the AL West. Now, they’re 45-46 and are 1-9 in their last ten games going into the second half. Mike Trout is out injured, as is Anthony Rendon.
And the further they fall from contention, the louder the questions around Ohtani, a free agent at season’s end, will become.
In Seattle, even as the crowd chanted his name, he was his typically reserved self when asked about his future. He is positioned to be offered the largest contract in baseball history this winter.
The oft-thrown around $500 million baseline? It seems low, which is insane-person thinking considering we’re talking about half a billion dollars but there is truly no comparison for what we’re working with here.
My two cents (which isn’t worth much, I know) is that the Angels won’t trade him, even if their slide continues and they’re reasonably out of the playoff race come the August 1st deadline.
No, instead owner Arte Moreno will squeeze out every cent of gate and merchandise revenue he can from his once-in-a-lifetime player before trying to get him locked in on a long-term commitment come the off-season.
But Ohtani wants to win, badly, as he has made unmistakably clear over the past few weeks and as he did again during his ASG media session.
And as much as I feel for Angel fans, who have been stuck with poor teams and worse ownership for the better part of ten-plus years, winning is something that seems increasingly unlikely to happen in Anaheim.
Far beyond just a “story to watch”, the decision Ohtani ultimately makes on his future, one way or the other, won’t just impact the Angels but will be the sort of competitive-balance shifting move we hardly ever see in baseball.
All eyes on Shohei? It isn’t anything new.
The Pride of Louisiana State.
The MLB Draft took place last week. A few notable stories worth revisiting include:
Paul Skenes, drafted first overall by Pittsburgh, was recently named the best player in college baseball. He had a 1.77 ERA and 188 strikeouts for Louisiana State University this past season, as they won the College World Series. He walked just 18 batters all year. His teammate, Dylan Crews was taken second by Washington. They are the first teammates to go 1-2 in draft history.
Arjun Nimmala was drafted by the Blue Jays 20th overall. Just 17, he batted .479 and hit six home runs during his senior year of high school. He aims to be the first player of Indian descent to play in MLB.
Myles Naylor, 18, from Mississauga, Ontario was drafted 39th overall by Oakland. His older brothers Josh and Bo, both play in the Majors with Cleveland. Talk about a Canadian connection, eh?
Miggy!
The Detroit Tigers are not a good team this year.
Their combined no-hitter against the Jays, while a tremendous accomplishment, seems to be something of an outlier.
Eleven games below .500, they are one of the worst hitting teams in the Majors (you might remember, I saw this first hand, having attended a game earlier this summer).
And Miguel Cabrera, while struggling mightily during his final season, was still intent on making history that day, tying Ty Cobb for the 15th most extra-base-hits in baseball history.
Four days later, he hit his first home run of the season, career number 508.
A twelve-time All-Star, two-time MVP and a Triple Crown winner, Cabrera is one of baseball’s all-time greats and one of the best hitters the sport has ever seen.
Injuries and declining performance have slowed him over the past few years but he has eased into a part-time with grace, as his career draws to a close.
Let’s just hope, between now and September, Miggy can hit another homer or two.
For old time’s sake.