The Toronto Blue Jays: The Off-Balance, 2025 Season Preview.
Expectations, lost promise and life Under the Dome.
As much as optimism may rule the sandlot, it is a flame that, ever-cynical, burns out quickly come the spring (perfectly balanced, in a way, as the snow continues to fall in Southern Ontario).
Fittingly, as the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to open their 2025 season on Thursday, they find themselves riding a particularly-fleeting high: Grapefruit League champions, though with the all acclaim such a title implies - not even muted applause, simply nervous anticipation, for what is and what could be, coming next.
For while the fumes of increasingly long-ago promise can still be felt on the wind, this Jays core, still ostensibly in the running for a higher level of contention, step into Opening Day trying, once more, to live up to a billing that more-and-more, carries itself as being firmly out of reach.
But baseball, after all, thrives on the unexpected.
Following back-to-back seasons of sweeps in the wild card, the Blue Jays fell clean off that foundation in 2024: finishing last in the AL East, twenty games back, as they struggled to string any legitimate sense of consistency together, both on the mound and behind the plate, each, an epitome of a difficult season, more so, with their on-paper talent in mind.
Consider, for example: after leading the Majors in homers in 2021, Toronto was 26th in that department in 2024, while also being, per Blue Jays Nation, one of baseball’s lowest-ranked teams in both overall slugging and isolated power (that being, in the easiest terms, a clear picture of a batter’s raw execution in the box). Their bullpen was a lost cause and their rotation, perhaps as a byproduct of that weak support, couldn’t steady the ship.
On the surface, the team put in the work over the winter to address and tighten up these concerns, albeit, in the most Toronto way possible. Though that isn’t to cast an immediate shade of doubt or distrust over the team’s most prominent additions, necessarily.
Outfielder Anthony Santander should add some pop to the batting order, even if, talent considered, expecting him to replicate a career-year is far from guaranteed. Andrés Giménez, coming off three straight Gold Gloves during his time in Cleveland, should help stabilize the infield through his presence alone and (as discussed previously, come his signing) while Max Scherzer, at 40, is no longer the ace-to-end-all-aces, as he was during the prime of his career, at his best, few can top “Mad Max’s” legendary competitive fire.
He’ll slot in, there is no question but health, given his documented injury troubles, is, for better or worse, the operating factor. Should he stumble, he will be insulated to a degree in the rotation, be it with José Berríos and Kevin Gausman ahead of him but the Jays aren’t counting on Scherzer to simply coast on past victories - as if he would, though his durability is something to keep an eye on.
Elsewhere, after a terrific spring (in which he batted .423/.541/1.287 with two homers), top prospect Alan Roden made the team, just beating out Addison Barger, who, while he had a noteworthy camp all his own, will begin his season in Buffalo: regardless, there will be a general sense of fluidly in the outfield, as Daulton Varsho, still rehabbing, will more definitively establish the team’s makeup once he returns to the diamond.
And with a new five-year contract in hand, Alejandro Kirk has locked down his spot as the team’s catcher of record (and is, at this very moment, the only player signed through into the 2030s). While his defense, obviously, is the top priority, as one of the best pitch framers in the Majors, speaking to the news, even president Mark Shapiro acknowledged the team’s hope that he can recapture some of the offensive form that saw him become an All-Star in 2022.
Though it isn’t as if the Jays are lacking All-Star talent: simply murky futures within them.
For that has been the biggest question, the only question, the all-consuming reality that has dominated Blue Jays discourse these past few weeks: just how can and should they navigate whatever lies ahead with their duelling All-Stars in Vladimir Guerrero Junior and Bo Bichette?
Both are scheduled to reach free agency come season’s end, though with Guerrero having signed a one-year deal in January, the immediate discourse has shifted to what’s next.
In an interview with ESPN earlier this month, Guerrero denied reports that he is seeking a long-term contract with a dollar amount comparable to newly-minted New York Met Juan Soto but confirmed he is seeking similar length - specifically, it seems, fourteen years, at minimum. Guerrero, who turned 26 last week, is coming off a campaign which saw him finish sixth in AL-MVP voting, hit 30 home runs for the third time and reassert his standing as one of baseball’s standout offensive players. Of course, it bears wondering just how much weight that pedigree should carry. If Guerrero is exactly that, at his peak, then that is excellent yes, elite even but it is far cry, once more, from his career-best 2022, which saw him, with 48 homers and AL-leading offensive numbers, push for that superstar stratosphere.
Perhaps though, as the seasons past and one grows wiser, it is understanding that was an anomaly of sorts, a bar he just won’t clear again. Fair enough.
But until he’s 40? Well, with respect, he isn’t Hugh Jackman.
Either way however, should the Jays wish to devote any significant financial capital to Guerrero, they must also balance on the scale, the questions surrounding shortstop Bichette.
Never one known for his defensive prowess, while Bichette has honed his infield instincts to a respectable pace over the past few seasons, it has always been in the box for which he has shone brightest: he has led the American League in hits twice, consecutively, in 2021 and 2022, is a safe bet for 20 home runs a year and although his raw stats have dropped year-over-year, he remains an effective threat on the base-paths.
Now, his numbers cratered in 2024 but various injuries saw him limited to just 81 games, amidst, by his own acknowledgment, personal struggles regarding his approach. The Jays and Bichette both are counting on a bounce back, with the wily shortstop boldly proclaiming (as is spring tradition, hear thee, hear thee) that he believes Toronto can make a serious run despite eyebrow-raising skepticism.
Yet he is without a contract beyond this season and although it may not seem too long ago, it has been over half-a-decade now since he and Guerrero were touted proudly as Hogtown’s newest Dynamic Duo, those who would bring the Jays back to the World Series stage. They still can, in fairness and with a solid if somewhat unspectacular supporting cast, it isn’t as though the jury is already completely out.
But the clock, having steadily grown louder-and-louder, really is ticking now. The team has the ability to make noise but this era of Jays baseball has been coloured, when it mattered most, by missed opportunity.
So, the pressure cooker arrives.
And with it, come Thursday, this Jays core will get one more chance, perhaps their last, to change their narrative.
Play ball.
As a Mets fan, I hope there's an opening in the AL East with the Yankees, top-heavy as usual, crumbling with injuries. Also, I feel like I have said this about the Jays in several different years.
Fromtheyardtothearthouse.substack.com
Great piece, Ryan. Best of luck this season, Blue Jays. Would be nice to see them as real contenders again. Looking forward to opening day! Let’s play ball!!