We deserved better - but the Blue Jays didn't.
They never lived up to their potential and now head into a winter full of uncertainty.
You might remember, if you’re a particularly keen reader around these parts, that I made my annual trip to the Dome to watch the Blue Jays play in August.
They stare down the possibility of missing the playoffs entirely if they cannot start stringing some consistency (and wins) together, as they jostle for positioning in the American League wildcard race.
That being said, their pitching staff, despite the flameout and (twice over) demotion of Alek Manoah, is still, very much, among the best in baseball.
The Blue Jays offence, on the other hand?
Continually charging face-first into avoidable frustration, which is greatly amplified given their tremendous on-paper talent.
They proved me wrong on one count, at least, sneaking into the playoffs by the seams of their caps but it was, unfortunately, the only trick they had up their shortened sleeves.
Swept by the Minnesota Twins in their best-of-three wildcard series last week, their seventh straight playoff defeat, the Jays limp into another offseason with unfulfilled promises and profound disappointment hanging over them.
Speaking on Thursday, team president Mark Shapiro hit all of his expected, upper-executive talking points (much better than GM Ross Atkins did during his press conference last Saturday) but a feeling of unaccountability lingers.
The fact remains that, following their swift exit in the 2022 wildcard, these Jays were supposed to be taking that next, competitive step.
But after a summer full of angst and frustration? They’re right back where they started.
By trading, most prominently, outfielders Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Junior last winter, the team, by bringing in players like Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier to replace them, seemed keen on setting a different, more defensively responsible tone (Kiermaier, for what it is worth, doesn’t sound like someone who will be returning to Toronto).
There was a renewed emphasis on doing all those “little things” right, on establishing and maintaining a “championship or bust” mentality, the type of thinking that rewards the impossible grind of the playing-nearly-every-day six month season. Yada, yada, yada.
It was all pretty standard, spring-training hype-speak. The type of empty quotes managers fire off when they’re simply eager to get out of a scrum. But for the Jays, a team that came out the other end of a rebuild, oh-so-close to legitimate contention?
It seemed justified. It seem warranted. It was exciting, to consider what a deep-into-October Blue Jays team could look like.
The team even said goodbye to the fan-favourite home run jacket, wanting to keep things, presumably, more buttoned-up and focused in the dugout.
Instead?
They struggled all year with developing any sort of team-wide offensive consistency, had their supposed ace, in Alek Manoah, spontaneously combust as a major-league option - before he was ultimately banished to the minors and later ruled-out entirely during the stretch run.
They couldn’t win against their own division, critical games, until the season’s final weeks - where improved seeding was out of the question and simply securing a wildcard spot was the baseline (their 9-5 record against the AL East in September can only mask so much of a season-wide, 21-31 mark).
Yeah sure, the Jays sent four All-Stars to Seattle but they never strung together, collectively, a season that was worthy of such praise.
Their pitching, outside of Manoah and led by Kevin Gausman, who will surely garner some down-ballot Cy Young votes, was a definite high-point of an uneven year, if nothing else.
The bullpen was effective and starters José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi both had strong campaigns following difficult seasons in 2022.
All of it, overshadowed no doubt, by manager John Schneider’s decision to pull Berríos during the fourth inning of Game 2. Berríos, who was dealing, against his former team, had thrown three scoreless innings, with five strikeouts, on just 47 pitches.
But he was given the hook in favour of Kikuchi, who promptly gave up two runs.
Schneider, it seems, was sticking to a pre-determined plan, lining Kikuchi up against a stretch of the Minnesota lineup that was almost exclusively left-handed, only to watch it, almost immediately, blow up in his face.
Such a decision, regardless of how far up the ladder it came, speaks to the lack of in-the-moment problem solving that plagued the team all season.
Okay, fine. That’s your plan, one of the many, before the most important game of the year. Fair enough. You never know how these things are going to shake out. But given the way Berríos was pitching… you’re going to stick with it?
Seriously? C’mon now.
And yet, if that isn’t the defining moment of the Jays season, then it is Vladimir Guerrero Junior, getting picked off at second base an inning latter killing any momentum from a potential, two-men on rally, in what became a season-ending, 2-0 loss.
For Guerrero though, in a broader sense, it is a mistake from a player who is starting to become better recognized for his shortcomings more than anything else.
Bo Bichette has surpassed him as the team’s offensive leader and was their most consistent player on that end for virtually the entirety of the season.
While Matt Chapman struggled and players like Kiermaier and Whit Merrifield aren’t proficient contributors on that end of the ball, Bichette steadied the ship.
Carrying his scorching hot back-half of 2022 into 2023, he was fantastic.
He hit a career-best. 306, slugged 20-plus home runs for the third consecutive year, played an average-level shortstop, far above his usual norm and almost assuredly would have led the American League in hits for the third time had he not been sidelined through most of August with injuries.
Guerrero was supposed to be that guy.
If not the superstar per se, then the next man up. His 2021, where he hit 48 homers and finished second in MVP-voting was his announcement season, his arrival to the upper echelon, the natural trajectory, following his status as a one-time, can’t miss prospect.
His follow-up act, however, has been two straight seasons of downward production, including a drop-off on the defensive-side where he won a Gold Glove in 2022.
Maybe it was a high-water mark he won’t be able to clear and expecting him to return to that level simply isn’t realistic. But on the other hand, he’ll be 25 when next season begins, right in the prime of his career - where he should be relied upon to be a consistent performer, not seeing his numbers across the board decrease season-over-season.
Whatever his role going forward, the Blue Jays must clearly define it. If he’s not the lynchpin, there must be a more honest understanding of what to expect from him in 2024.
And that is where we find the Jays at large: what are our expectations?
This isn’t a eulogy on this era of Toronto baseball, not entirely but they are at something of a crossroads.
The talent is there, the pieces are in place but the accountability, from the front office down, isn’t.
Catcher Danny Jansen and Kikuchi are free agents next year. Guerrero, Bichette and top reliever Jordan Romano, the year after. How much should the team commit to this core?
To truly reach that next level, where they’re not fighting tooth-and-nail, down to the wire for a wildcard spot, there must be a shift in their thinking, in their process.
It isn’t an impossible task - but it won’t be an easy winter, either.